Breeders’ Cup 2003 Handicapping Report
Race & Pace Analyses with Betting Strategy
Oct 25, 2003 @ Arlington Park, Illinois

• Breeders Cup Distaff
• Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies
• Breeders Cup Mile
• Breeders Cup Sprint
• Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Turf
• Breeders Cup Juvenile
• Breeders Cup Turf
• Breeders Cup Classic

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Track outlook and intelligence report: Friday’s racing was fairly true to form. The weather was very warm, but not unbearable. There were some decent payoffs, but a case could be made for the long-shot winners. Neither early speed nor late runs seemed to dominate the day. Sarafan was scratched from the Mile. Conversations with some of the European media indicated that many of the European horses will struggle with both the temperature and the firmness of the turf course. In particular, there seemed to be consensus that Islington, in the Filly and Mare Turf, although my top choice, is not fond of hard turf courses. Falbrav, in the Turf however, prefers a harder turf surface and should take to it well. Several European members of the media also commented on Oasis Dream being uncomfortable with the mile distance, would prefer to be going shorter. There is a good deal of excitement around Sulamani, in the Turf. He is apparently in better form than is evident from his past performances. Sightseek is widely regarded as the best bet of the day, and I would agree with that.

2nd Race : 1 1/8 Miles on Dirt, Breeders’ Cup Distaff ($2MM) 3UPYo

Pace Analysis: This race has plenty of horses that like to be on or near the pace. BUY THE SPORT earns the highest speed score, but that is not based on early speed. However, TAKE CHARGE LADY, LADY TAK, and ELLOLUV all like to press the pace. There are no entries in the field that are new to the distance, so expect the pace to be brisk, but not insensible. The class of the race, SIGHTSEEK, is also in a perfect stalking position. Based on pace, this race sets up perfectly for the heavy favorite.

Race Analysis: SIGHTSEEK used to carry the stigma of being limited to shorter distances, but her last two efforts were won by large, widening margins, going 9 furlongs. She looks like she will easily make the distance. Her chances are improved by the fact that she can sit off the pace with this lot. The next tier of talent in this bunch is headed by TAKE CHARGE LADY. She earns the best class score, but a good portion of it is back class. Still, she is not to be taken lightly. With pressure up front, I expect her to settle for second, but if she turns in a career performance, or if she gets loose on the lead, she could be there at the end. GOT KOKO comes in with a flattering 2:1 morning line, but she still has something to prove to me. Her Grade I efforts are with small fields, including catching AZERI on a really bad day. I see her as a notch below the best in this lot. I hope she draws some betting, because she should be no match for SIGHTSEEK.

• Running Early: TAKE CHARGE LADY
• Running Late: GOT KOKO

Breeders' Cup Distaff Betting Strategy

• Good bet to hit the board: SIGHTSEEK
• Win Bet: SIGHTSEEK
• Exacta Bet: Box 1,5,6
• Trifecta Bet: Wheel 1,5 with 1,3,5,6 with 1,3,5,6
• Pick Three Bet: 1,5 with 5,6,14 with 1,13,14
• Head-2-Head Bet: TAKE CHARGE LADY
• Long Shot Bet: TAKE CHARGE LADY

Distaff Race Results
 2	 Adoration          Valenzuela      83.40   33.40 25.80
 6   Elloluv            Nakatani                 9.20 12.20
 7   Got Koko           Solis                          6.80

Winning Time:  1:49

$1 Exacta 2-6               238.40
$1 Trifecta 2-6-7          1017 40
$1 Superfecta 2-6-7-5      1981.7

3rd Race: 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies ($1.0MM) 2yo

Pace Analysis: FOREST MUSIC comes in with a big speed margin on the rest of the field. However, she is coming off a maiden breaking, one-turn effort with a much cheaper lot. The faster she goes with this lot, the harder she should fade in the stretch. However, she has the potential to drag several horses along with her for the first half of the race. VICTORY U.S.A. and CLASS ABOVE both look like candidates to be drawn into the pace. If Julie Krone can get HALFBRIDLED to settle, this race should come back to her. I expect the pace to be quite fast, with a couple of these with only a wire-to-wire chance. The quick pace definitely should set up the race for a big close, as well as helping the chances of the heavy favorite.

Race analysis: SOCIETY SELECTION arrives with the best class score, based on a late-running Grade I win in the Frizette. This horse looks very dangerous to come from off the pace, and certainly figures to be part of the money. ASHADO looks like a great value at 20:1. She has only one bad race in her history, losing to SOCIETY SELECTION. She has a nice lurking style that should help handle the distance. CLASS ABOVE has some very flattering morning line odds, based mostly on her huge margin of victory in her last race. However, the company in that one is nothing like she will see today. Even with sixteen lengths on the place finisher, she ran the mile in 1:39. That sort of speed will not be nearly good enough today. This race has produced some large payoffs in the past, and today could be another. While HALFBRIDLED is clearly the best of this bunch, these are two year old fillies. By their nature, they can be very unpredictable. She should go off at about even money, and that is overbet for this race. If you can get 3:2 on HALFBRIDLED, she makes a decent win bet. Otherwise, should consider others.

• Running Early: FOREST MUSIC, VICTORY U.S.A.
• Running Late: SOCIETY SELECTION
• Good bet to hit the board: HALFBRIDLED

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Betting Strategy

• Win Bet: HALFBRIDLED (at 3:2 or higher) or SOCIETY SELECTION
• Exacta Bet: Box 5,6,14
• Trifecta Bet: Wheel 6,14 with 5,6,7,14 with 5,6,7,14
• Pick Three Bet: 5,6,14 with 1, 13, 14 with 2,6
• Head-2-Head Bet: VICTORY U.S.A.
• Long Shot Bet: SOCIETY SELECTION

Juvenile Fillies Race Results
14   Halfbridled        Krone            6.60    4.80  3.40
 5   Ashado             Velazquez               11.60  7.20
 8   Victory U.S.A.     Bailey                         4.80

$1 Exacta 12-5               63.00
$1 Trifecta 14-5-8          343.10
$1 Superfecta 14-5-8-3     299

4th Race: 1 Mile on Turf, Breeders’ Cup Mile ($1.0MM) 3UPYo

Pace analysis: PEACE RULES has a clear speed advantage over the rest, and he will definitely try to use it. He is no stranger to turf, and has a victory at this distance, over this track, in front-running style. However, this is the same horse that wanted to wire the Kentucky Derby and came close to doing it. He has a ton of heart and will not concede the lead easily. Look for his connections to ask him to save something for the stretch. If he can get ¾ in 46:3, he will be very tough to catch. SPECIAL RING will likely not allow PEACE RULES to loaf too much. However, this horse knows how to rate a bit, and can pass others on the way to victory. SOARING FREE will be a part of the pace, as will OASIS DREAM. OASIS DREAM is particularly dangerous because he has never gone a mile, and may try to go the first six furlongs in sprint fashion. That could further drive the pace into the red zone. With these in the mix, and the size of the field, the pace should be very competitive. There are a slew of late runners in this field, and I think the pace should support them coming with a rush. So if you don’t like what the computer has come up with, pick your favorite closer and go with him.

Race analysis: The best class is the computer’s top choice, PEACE RULES, but that is driven largely by his Triple Crown performances more than his turf efforts. The up-and-coming class, possible wiseguy bet, is PERFECT SOUL. The computer did a nice job of picking him to win out of a good crowd in his last effort, paying handsomely to win. That win should have come as no surprise, and this is a logical step up today. He has a great late-running style that should work very well today. The most dangerous European invader is SIX PERFECTIONS, who comes into this race with five wins and four seconds in nine lifetime starts, most of them in Graded company. She is a dominant turf filly in Europe and always runs her race. She likes to come from far back, and should have plenty of pace to run at. Her winning times are a bit slower than the rest of these, but she has never run a turf race over a dry, firm course. TOUCH OF THE BLUES was riding a two race win streak before bumping into PERFECT SOUL in his last. This guy has two wins and two thirds since the Breeders’ Cup Mile last year, against top company. He has a great closing rush and looks like a great value at 20:1. This race is very competitive and thus should be a great betting race. It should be a classic match-up of speed on the front end and some talented closers. I would not be surprised to see the favorite go off at 7:2 or more.

• Running Early: PEACE RULES
• Running Late: PERFECT SOUL, SIX PERFECTIONS, FREEFORINTERNET
• Good bet to hit the board: SIX PERFECTIONS

Breeders’ Cup Mile Betting Recommendations

• Win Bet: SIX PERFECTIONS
• Exacta Bet: Box 1, 13, 14
• Trifecta Bet: Wheel 13, 14 with 1, 9, 13, 14 with 1,9,13,14
• Pick Three Bet: 1, 13, 14 with 2,6 with 1,4,6
• Head-2-Head Bet: PEACE RULES
• Long Shot bet: PERFECT SOUL

Breeders' Cup Mile Race Results
13   Six Perfections    Bailey          12.60    7.00  4.80
 9   Touch of the Blues Desormeaux               9.80  6.80
 8   Good Journey       Day                            3.60

$1 Exacta 13-9               76.80
$1 Trifecta 13-9-8        2,628.70
$1 Superfecta 13-9-8-11  39,23

5th Race 6 Furlongs on Dirt, Breeders’ Cup Sprint ($1.0MM) 3UPYo

Pace Analysis: Overall, this sprint is not packed with blinding, freakish early speed. There are lots of raters and stalkers with great tactical speed, but I don’t see any records being set for the first quarter or half. MIDAS EYES earns the highest speed score, but he is not extremely experienced at this distance. He will have to run a faster half mile than he is used to if he wants to lead early. f he can stay close to the pace with a first quarter 22 second effort, he could be there at the end. SHAKE YOU DOWN will be one of the early pacesetters, and his fractions indicate he can say, “come get me” to the rest. He needs to lead to win. In his last twelve races he has only passed four horses, and none of those were in the stretch. If he is not first or second out of the gate, tear up your win tickets on him. However, with this crowd, I believe he will clear the field and then it will be his to win or lose. He will run this in about 108.1, and on the lead.

Race Analysis: This is a very interesting lot, with many in here at distances that just don’t look perfect for them. Compared to BC Sprints in the past, there are not many that are seasoned, pure, 6F sprinters. That makes it particularly hard to handicap because you have to figure out who is going to take to it best. Even the favorite, and top class score, ALDEBARAN, would probably prefer at least another half furlong and will have to hurry to get up in time. Additionally, I see a split field, with SHAKE YOU DOWN plus maybe one other on the lead, and then a small separation to the rest, setting respectable fractions. It does not look like it sets up for a big rush in the stretch. ALDEBARAN looks like a deserving morning line favorite, but may not be by post time. Others will share my concern about his ability at this distance. CAPTAIN SQUIRE snuck into my computer’s predicted trifecta, but largely based on his third place effort in Dubai. He does not figure well today.

• Running Early: SHAKE YOU DOWN, YANKEE GENTLEMAN
• Running Late: ALDEBARAN, POSSE
• Good bet to hit the board: ALDEBARAN

Breeders Cup Sprint Horse Betting Strategy

• Win Bet: SHAKE YOU DOWN
• Exacta Bet: Box 2,5,6
• Trifecta Bet: Wheel 2,6 with 2,4,5,6 with 2,4,5,6
• Pick Three Bet: 2,6 with 1,4,6 with 6,8,12
• Head-2-Head Bet: VALID VIDEO
• Long Shot Bet: MIDAS EYES

Breeders' Cup Sprint Race Results

11   Cajun Beat         Velasquez       47.60   19.80 11.20
 8   Bluesthestandard   Smith                   12.60  8.00
 2   Shake You Down     Luzzi                          5.00

$1 Exacta 11-8              380.10
$1 Trifecta 11-8-2        2,151.70
$1 Superfecta 11-8-2-3   31,14

6th Race: 1 ¼ Miles in Turf, Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf ($1.0MM) 3UPYo

Pace Analysis: BIEN NICOLE and TATES CREEK will inherit the lead rather than work too hard for it, unless one of the long shots takes a crack at wiring it. These two clearly like to be near the lead, but not necessarily on the lead. So they will take the first half in as reasonable a pace as they can get away with. DESSERT figures to be up close also. It should be a tight field, with no one looking to commit any pace sins early. The eventual winner will likely be no further back than fifth at the turn, and should have saved plenty of gas for the stretch.

Race Analysis: ISLINGTON comes in as the class of the race, but is by no means elite amongst these. The computer gave her the nod for class mostly based on earning her million in fewer starts, but many of these have similarly accomplished records. MUSICAL CHIMES is an interesting second choice on the morning line. She answered a lot of questions in her last, going 1 ¼ impressively to finish second to TATES CREEK. She definitely took well to the distance after going one turn for most of her career. TATES CREEK is 11 of 16 lifetime, with many of them against graded company. She has beaten many of these at least once, and today’s outing is business as usual for her. She held form in her last, right here at Santa Anita, as a heavy favorite. Other than the size of the field, there is no reason she should not be very well-bet again. HEAT HAZE certainly belongs with these, and will probably try to go last-to-first again today.

• Running Early: BIEN NICOLE
• Running Late: HEAT HAZE, MEGAHERTZ, ISLINGTON
• Good bet to hit the board: TATES CREEK

Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf Horse Betting Strategies

• Win Bet: TATES CREEK
• Exacta Bet: Box 1,4,6
• Trifecta Bet: Wheel 1,6 with 1,3,4,6 with 1,3,4,6
• Pick Three Bet: 1,4,6 with 6,12 with 3,4,5
• Head-2-Head Bet: TATES CREEK
• Long Shot Bet: BIEN NICOLE

Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf Race Results
 4   Islington          Fallon           7.80    6.00  4.20
11   L'Ancresse         Prado                   32.60 13.00
 2   Yesterday          Kinane                         7.80

$1 Exacta 4-11              212.40
$1 Trifecta 4-11-2        1,589.50
$1 Superfecta 4-11-2-3   18,834.00

7th Race: 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile ($1.0MM) 2yo

Pace Analysis: I am one of many that think it is a shame CUVEE drew the outside post. With his running style, he is really going to have to hustle to get to the rail by the first turn. Even though he is a notch above the rest of these, it is going to take some effort to get there, and it will definitely hurt his chances. Despite this, it would be a surprise to see this horse taken back early and asked to rate. There are enough in here with speed that even getting two wide by the first turn will take some effort. Keep in mind that the biggest field he has ever faced was eight horses. He is not used to seeing the rear ends of other horses, or passing them on the turn. One of those to his left and moving fast will be CHAPEL ROYAL, who also likes to be on the front end. The speedster in the catbird seat is RACE FOR GLORY who will have it all his way early on in the first post position. The post position situation sets up this one for some early fractions that should give way to someone coming off the pace. TIGER HUNT is a real threat in this position. He has shown the ability to overcome trouble and prevail, and is used to closing on large fields. If his last effort was a fluke, then he is cheaper than the rest of these. But if it was a sign of a rapidly improving horse, he is a loaded gun.

Race Analysis: The pace scenario is most of the story in this one. With all the European invaders, this one could definitely paid like a monster if the favorite falters, and I think he has some excuses why he could. Of my computer’s other top rated horses, most could be a part of the pace scenario and could miss the board entirely. If that happens, CAPITANO could be there to pick up the pieces, but it would take the race of his life to prevail in this one. A more realistic possibility is that TIGER HUNT will be the one to beat if CUVEE misses. MAMBO TRAIN becomes the long shot bet here based on the fact that he won his first race at long odds, then raced very greenly in his second. If the favorites do not fire, this one is wide open, so why not.

• Running Early: CUVEE, CHAPEL ROYAL
• Running Late: TIGER HUNT and most European horses
• Good bet to hit the board: TIGER HUNT

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Horse Betting Strategies

• Win Bet: TIGER HUNT
• Exacta Bet: Box 6,8,10
• Trifecta Bet: Wheel 6,12 with 6,8,10,12 with 6,8,10,12
• Pick Three Bet: 6,12 with 3,4,5 with 3,7,8
• Head-2-Head Bet: TIGER HUNT
• Long Shot Bet: MAMBO TRAIN

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Race Results
2   Action This Day    Flores          55.60   19.20 11.00
7   Minister Eric      Solis                    8.80  7.20
10   Chapel Royal       Velazquez                      5.60

$1 Exacta 2-7               188.40
$1 Trifecta 2-7-10        2,245.40
$1 Superfecta 2-7-10-6    9,123.00

8th Race: 1 ½ Miles on Turf, Breeders’ Cup Turf ($2.0MM) 3UPYo

Pace analysis: THE TIN MAN is a notorious speedster and will definitely be trying to steal this one. He held on for fourth in this event last year after leading for most of the race. The other two who will contest the speed are two “I don’t get it” entries. BALTO STAR cannot go this far and it is a puzzler why his connections think he can. He has a decent shot at a mile (and there is a mile race available today) but no chance going further. He will not have it all his way in this one, thus stealing it is not really feasible. TOCCET is the other “huh?” entry. I liked this guy a lot in the Juvenile last year. He let me down that day, but later proved I was not completely wrong about him. But he has never raced on turf before and is this is not a good starter opportunity for him. Regardless of the questionable judgment on the part of BALTO STAR and TOCCET, both figure to play in the pace and should set things up for a close. If these three get daylight on the rest, and are allowed to set reasonable fractions, one of them could hold for a piece.

Race Analysis: HIGH CHAPAREL is the reigning champion in this event, winning last year as a strong favorite. He has not done anything wrong since, and has lifetime earnings of over $4.5 million in just twelve races. He has never missed the board in his lifetime. This race sets up just like last year’s did, and he figures to come from midpack and mow them down in the stretch. He always runs his race. The reason he comes in as the second choice is the emergence of one named FALBRAV. FALBRAV has almost as much in career earnings, but took twice as long to do it. He is in good form right now, but has lost recently to my computer’s top choice. SULAMANI earns my highest last score for his back to back Grade I wins, against decent sized fields. Critics wanted to put an asterisk next to his Arlington Million win because of the unusual circumstances, but then he backed it up with another impressive Grade I win. He has a great running style for the turf. The tepid favorite will likely be STORMING HOME, who comes in off four efforts where he crossed the finish line first (was DQ in the Arlington Million, but finished first). There is nothing not to like about him, except for the lack of an explanation why he is suddenly running so well. With 23 lifetime starts and eight wins, three of those wins were in 2003. Before that, he was certainly beatable. It should not be a shock to anyone if STORMING HOME wins this one, but I can’t find a reason to bet around the reigning champion, and he will go off at a very nice price.

• Running Early: THE TIN MAN, BALTO STAR
• Running Late: HIGH CHAPPARAL, STORMING HOME
• Good bet to hit the board: SULAMANI

Breeders’ Cup Turf Horse Betting Recommendations

• Win Bet: HIGH CHAPPARAL
• Exacta Bet: Box 3,4,5
• Trifecta Bet: Box 3,4,5,8
• Pick Three Bet: 3,4,5 with 3,7,8 with 1,9
• Head-2-Head Bet: SULAMANI
• Long Shot Bet: THE TIN MAN

Breeders' Cup Turf Race Results
3dh High Chaparral     Kinane           6.40    6.20  3.80
9dh Johar              Solis           13.60    9.00  5.40
8   Falbrav            Holland                        4.20

$1 Exacta 3-9                44.40
$1 Exacta 9-3                36.30
$1 Trifecta 3-9-8           248.30
$1 Trifecta 9-3-8           180.20
$1 Superfecta 9-3-8-7      190.00

9th Race: 1 ¼ Miles on Dirt, Breeders’ Cup Classic ($4.0MM) 3UPYo

Pace Analysis: CONGAREE earns the computer’s best speed score, and a reputation for running on the lead. But he doesn’t have to wire the field to win. MEGALIA D’ORO will not be far behind in the early going. He would be wise to not let CONGAREE get too comfortable on the lead. Behind these two, there is very little speed in the race. FUNNY CIDE and PERFECT DRIFT will fill the third and fourth spots. The pace should be respectable but not insane, with both of the two front-runners hoping to get away with as soft of fractions as possible to save something for the stretch. TEN MOST WANTED and PLEASANTLY PERFECT will dawdle towards the back, hoping for a chance for a late run. However, other than the distance, the race does not set up for a huge late run.

Race Analysis: MEDAGLIA D’ORO has been very impressive, and consistent, since his second place effort in the Belmont last year. Since then he is six for seven in Grade I or Grade II races. His second place to Candy Ride is nothing to be ashamed of in the Pacific Classic. No one knows what to expect from FUNNY CIDE. He has obviously not been the same horse that won the first two legs of the Triple Crown. I believe he still fits with these, but there is nothing to indicate he will race back to his May form. PERFECT DRIFT is the hottest horse in the field. Discounting a lackluster (turf) effort in the Arlington Million, he has won four Graded events against some very tough fields, including CONGAREE, and Mineshaft. His win over Mineshaft in the Stephen Foster was no fluke. Mineshaft ran his race that day, but PERFECT DRIFT just plain beat him. His stalking style is perfect for the pace scenario. PLEASANTLY PERFECT is in very good form right now and has shown he likes this track. He should go off at overlay odds. VOLPONI will be a very disrespected reigning champion. Many never really recognized the win at this event last year as anything other than a fluke. But his performances since then have lent some credibility to the score, even though he has not won since. He has run second to Mineshaft and MEDAGLIA D’ORO in Grade I events, so it is not as if he has taken the year off. TEN MOST WANTED will be well bet, potentially even become the favorite. My computer and I are both skeptical of him though. His win in the Super Derby was over a small, weak field. He has not faced a field of bigger than six since the Derby, where he finished ninth. This race does not set up well for him, and I am still not convinced he has ever performed to his tremendous hype. The fact that the favorite in the Classic is 3:1 and the longest shot on the morning line is 15:1 is because this race is truly wide open. Any one of six horses can make a legitimate claim to be feared.

• Running Early: CONGAREE, MEDAGLIA D’ORO
• Running Late: TEN MOST WANTED, DYNEVER, PERFECT DRIFT
• Good bet to hit the board: MEDAGLIA D’ORO

Breeders' Cup Classic Race Betting Strategy

• Win Bet: PERFECT DRIFT
• Exacta Bet: Box 3,4,7,8
• Trifecta Bet: Wheel 7,8 with 3,4,7,8 with 3,4,7,8
• Head-2-Head Bet: VOLPONI
• Long Shot bet: PLEASANTLY PERFECT

Breeders' Cup Classic Race Results
2   Pleasantly Perfect Solis           30.40    9.60  6.60
8   Medaglia d'Oro     Bailey                   4.40  3.60
6   Dynever            Nakatani                       7.40

$1 Exacta 2-8                         70.00
$1 Trifecta 2-8-6                    831.00
$1 Superfecta 2-8-6-9  

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Disclaimer: Previous success with our horse race and pace analysis is not necessarily an indicator of future success. No recommended horse wagers or horse bets in this feature are guaranteed to win or return any profit. If subscribers choose to wager, based on this analysis, they do so at their own risk. Please wager responsibly. Enjoy the races, and good luck!